Sino-US trade war situation is steep, coupled with U.S. naval exercises in the Taihai Sea and South China, Sino-US conflict extends from trade to military, investors feel uneasy, coupled with foreign reports to reduce the target price of 11 semiconductor stocks, and the forecast revision period is as long as half a year, Taiwan's leading forecaster, Taiwanese stocks accumulated electricity, jumped short and began to weaken. TSMC, which made up for the decline, fell 61 points yesterday, contributing 52 points to the decline in Taiwan's overall market.
It fell 61 points yesterday, accounting for about 52 points.
As each $1 drop in TSMC is equivalent to about 8 points in Taiwan stocks, Taiwan stocks fell 61.19 points yesterday, and TSMC accounted for about 52 points.
Analysts pointed out that due to the Sino-US trade war, foreign investment downgraded the semiconductor rating, coupled with the drop in the international stock market, TSMC became the first foreign ATM to bear the brunt. However, TSMC is ahead of the rest in technology, or look forward to the future development of TSMC. Foreign capital sold 23,765 pieces of TSMC electricity yesterday, which has been sold for three consecutive days, totaling 48,253 pieces of TSMC electricity in three days. TSMC returned from its September 27th high point to 8.1% yesterday.
In view of the semiconductor outlook in the near future, foreign investment in the Hong Kong system fired the first shot, conservative view of the semiconductor industry boom, predicted that the overall industry will enter a downturn cycle, the fastest possible to fall before the second quarter of next year, while adjusting one breath to lower the target price of 11 semiconductor stocks in Taiwan and adjust the rating of 5 stocks.
Hong Kong foreign investment pointed out that there was no growth in demand for products. In addition to the slowing demand for data centers, industrial and automotive markets, the shortage of Intel's CPU supply will also affect computing-related demand. The worst of the semiconductor industry has not yet arrived, and many semiconductor factories, such as Unicom, the world and Wanghong, have been downgraded. Investment evaluation.
Although the foreign investment in the Hong Kong system has maintained a buy-in rating for TSMC and the target price has also maintained at 300 yuan (NT$, the same after), it is estimated that the fourth quarter revenue of TSMC will increase only about 12%, lower than the original expectation of a 20% quarterly increase. Therefore, some foreign investors believe that the US dollar revenue of TSMC will grow by only 5-6% this year, which will be lower than the target of 7-9% growth after the reduction announced by TSMC a few days ago, and the revenue growth of TSMC will be reduced by only 8-9% next year.
China and the us struggle to weaken semiconductors
What's wrong with the semiconductor industry? Wu Jinrong, general manager of micro-drive technology, pointed out that the weakening demand of the semiconductor industry is in fact related to the Sino-US trade war, the global economy is doubtful, and the Sino-US trade war is not easy to resolve in the short term, which may affect the demand for semiconductor products, which is also the reason for foreign investment to reduce the target evaluation and rating of semiconductors.
In addition, the smartphone market, Apple A12 chip by TSMC suppliers, and Apple's new phone is not too powerful, there is no reason consumers have to buy incentives to stimulate sales, TSMC is somewhat affected.
At the same time, the smartphone market in mainland China has also shown a downward trend, that is, the global mobile phone market has not grown as fast as previously, while AI and 5G continue to develop, but the progress is expected to become slow. If coupled with the high base period of semiconductor industry last year, the growth of semiconductors will weaken next year.
The Sino US war will affect semiconductor demand and foreign investment will be lowered.
Operating materials Q4 under the next quarter conservative
Wu Jinrong is still optimistic about the future development of TSMC. He thinks that only Samsung and Intel can compete with TSMC in advanced process. However, the former two players and referees will have doubts. The investment in advanced process may reach as high as 40-50 million US dollars in the light mask. Generally, small coffee wafer factories can not afford to play with it. Therefore, high-pass reflow TSMC and AMD The high-end chips are also turned back to platform production.
An unnamed analyst said that the most important reason for foreign investment to reduce the semiconductor rating was the appreciation of the US dollar, and foreign capital to leave. Of course, the largest part of TSMC to be cut off as a foreign ATM, which has nothing to do with the fundamentals of TSMC, but the Sino-US trade war triggered terminal manufacturers to adjust inventories, plus Apple's new mobile phone sales. In the short term, TSMC's fourth quarter operation may be downgraded, and its first quarter operation next year will be conservative, which will affect its recent share price performance. In the medium and long term, we should observe whether the confrontation between China and the US will continue to heat up and the US dollar trend.
